| Author(s) | Fahad M. Alkolibi |
| Affiliation | Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, College of Arts, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia |
| Title | Prediction of the Monthly Mean Temperature for Riyadh Using Harmonic Analyses |
| Source | Journal of King Saud University. Arts. Volume 15, No 2. (2003/1423) |
| Abstract | Abstract: Prediction of the monthly mean temperature is very important for individuals as well as many public and governmental sectors. Hence, this paper is an attempt to build a prediction model for the monthly mean temperature for Riyadh using harmonic analysis. The goal of using harmonic analysis is to investigate the existence of periodicity in the monthly mean temperature trend for Riyadh. The investigated time series includes 384 months extending from Jan 1961 to Dec. 1992. This time series is used as the base for building the prediction model. The results of the harmonic analyses indicate that there is a periodical systematic pattern for Riyadh’s monthly mean temperature trend. About 92% of the variation in the monthly mean temperature for Riyadh during the studied period is explained by six harmonics. Therefore, the outcome of these harmonics was utilized to build the prediction model, which is a non-linear harmonic model. To test the plausibility of the model, it was applied to predict the monthly mean temperature for the studied period as well as another five years extending from 1993 to 1997. The last five years tested were not included in building the model. The prediction results for both periods of time emphasize the plausibility of the model and the possibility of utilizing it for the prediction of the monthly mean temperature for Riyadh. |
