| Author(s) | Mohammed Kebieh* Amira M. Ebeido** |
| Affiliation | *Assistant Professor, Department of Quantitative Methods **Assistant Professor, Department of Economics College of Administrative Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia |
| Title | Probability Distribution of Project Activities Execution Times in PERT |
| Source | Journal of King Saud University. Administrative Sciences. Volume 12, No 2. (2000/1420) |
| Abstract | This research aims at fO~ights on the probability distribution governing activities execution times in PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique), This is done through two probability distributions: The symmetric triangular distribution and the symmetric stepping distribution instead of the Beta distribution used by the research group that developed PERT as an appropriate model. The reason behind this is the possibility of eliminating sources of error that may result when the Beta distribution is accepted as a distribution for activities times, This is so since precision of the expected values of activities execution times and their variances depend basically on the choice of the values ofp & q. As a result of the mathematical treatment of each of the suggested distributions we arrived at a derivation of precise mathematical expressions (as for the Beta distribution) for the calculation of the expected time for activities times and their variances, By comparing results of the calculations in the example concerning the offer made by a consultant office to prepare the financial and administrative systems for a Saudi company we arrived at the following: |
